Energy, Democracy & Peak Oil

Over on his blog, Mat Gross has an interesting post on the BBC 2003 production The War for Oil.

Past Peak provides us with a link to this BBC special from 2003, which weaves together the threads of declining oil resources and the US/British invasion of Iraq. It's a well-done documentary, and a great introduction to peak oil and the present resource wars-- well worth spending half an hour to watch. Its most salient point? The oil wars aren't about who owns the oil, but who burns it. Check it out.

Larisa Alexandrovna pointed me at Michael C. Rupert's long post on Peak Oil over on From the Wilderness.

OIL PRICESOil has topped $54 a barrel. It's gone up more than 25% in less than three months and fifty per cent over the last year; 400% since 1999. This amid strong signs that global oil production may have already peaked, as declines around the world are not being offset by new production. New fields may come online but the respite will be very short-lived. There may be a few "mega" projects (about a six-day supply for the planet in each) which may produce momentary price declines but the trend is irreversible. Official bodies like the International Energy Administration (IEA) are openly wishing that demand growth might slow in 2005, when actual figures already prove this wish utterly fanciful. China's oil demand is expected to grow by 33% this year. Industrialized and developing nations are expanding their economies as fast as possible to generate cash and liquidity as a means of securing more oil.

In short, the rate of discovery has been falling globally since the 1960s, the rate of production has entered 'terminal decline' in the USA, 1970s, and many other fields in other countries as well. In the face of this double decline, demand is increasing! This situation is clearly NOT sustainable.

The question is simply: Where is the economic, political, and cultural leadership for an aggressive and strategic shift away from carbon based energy as a foundation for our democracy? Surely it is only a matter of common sense that we must move as fast as possible to a new foundation based upon renewable energy supplies, such as wind, sun, hydro etc. and hydrogen?

Why is this issue, so vital to the well being of our way of life, not to mention our children and our grandchildren, not on the front pages of our major media? The oil situation will hurt us far sooner and harder than any concerns we might have about social security. Our priorities are badly askew.

UPDATE: April 27 - SAIC on Peak Oil for DoE

Larisa Alexandrovna also pointed me at:

Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management by Robert L. Hirsch et al.
Published on 7 Mar 2005 by PeakOil.com / US DoE. Archived on 7 Mar 2005

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.In 2003, the world consumed just under 80 million barrels per day (MM bpd) of oil. U.S. consumption was almost 20 MM bpd, two-thirds of which was in the transportation sector. The U.S. has a fleet of about 210 million automobiles and light trucks (vans, pick-ups, and SUVs). The average age of U.S. automobiles is nine years. Under normal conditions, replacement of only half the automobile fleet will require 10-15 years. The average age of light trucks is seven years. Under normal conditions, replacement of one-half of the stock of light trucks will require 9-14 years. While significant improvements in fuel efficiency are possible in automobiles and light trucks, any affordable approach to upgrading will be inherently time-consuming, requiring more than a decade to achieve significant overall fuel efficiency improvement.

Posted by Jock Gill at April 25, 2005 8:38 PM | TrackBack