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June 11, 2006

500 PPM CO2 & An Inconvenient Truth

My wife and I saw "An Inconvenient Truth" recently. Good audience, even if not quite sold out. Great film. As I told my friend Dewayne, if Al doesn't run for president, I'll be extremely disappointed.

Clearly, the implosion of the environment is THE defining challenge facing us. It trumps terrorism and all of the issues that Bush and Rove have used to define their agenda. It actually makes a mockery of them. The collapse of the environment as we have come to utterly depend on it is THE national security issue of the 21st century. It will be the organizing principal of the next effective political party with an agenda that ignites passions in its members.

Who lost the Environment? Who lost 8 precious years that could have made a real difference?

The Bush party of me, myself, and my money ignored Global Warming -- worse, they denied it.

Where is the party of we and I? The party of environmental stewardship? The party of cooperative gain?

Clearly, if the market must work for humanity and if humanity depends on the CO2 levels being held below 500 PPM, then the market must work to help humanity reach its environmental stewardship goals. To understand the importance of the 500 PPM of CO2 threshold, see Joe Romm's presentation at MIT's Energy 2.0 confernece on May 13, 2006.

My friend Dewayne also made a really good point in a conversation we had about the Gore movie. Back in the day, he worked for Buckminster Fuller as a programmer on his "World Game." And se this and especially this this.

Dewayne's point was why not use the World Game approach as a matrix for the information and challenges in Al's movie? The Inconvenient Truth version of the World Game could then give hands on experience manipulating the data to 10s of thousand school students. Manipulating the data with your own hands is the best way to internalize the learning it offers. It is their future, after all.

This World Game could also include the National Budget Simulation that Robert Steele writes about.

As my new company, Biomass Commodities, says: "It takes a village to raise a child, it takes the children to change the village." Education was the key to making "recycle" a powerful force. It will be a key to making "Environmental Stewardship" powerful enough to mitigate global warming.

Taking a closer look at one proposal for reducing CO2 emissions into the atmosphere, a question that needs to be asked is this: Where and how will the electricity for plugin hybrids be made? Releasing sequestered carbon to make this electricity is a non starter. This rules out all current power plants, with the exception of Nukes, which get ruled out as we have not yet solved their 20,000 year radioactive waste storage problem.

My answer is micro-CHP in 10s of millions of American homes. Micro-CHP fueled by biomass with 14:1 net energy gain - not ethanol with a mere 7:1 energy gain. Why would we throw away half the energy just to reduce the biomass to ethanol?

Think of the powerful economic forces that we would unleash in the process of inventing, building, installing, fueling, and servicing 10s of millions of micro-CHP units.

Micro-CHP will help us make the transition from making releasing sequestered carbon a prohibitively expensive option to a banned option. As we come to grips with the nature of the transformative threat of global warming, banning the release of sequestered carbon will not only be seen as obvious common sense but also a matter of preserving our national security.

Gore and Rommm have persuaded me that it is past time to move beyond carbon to the possibility of a future with even more rewards. Please watch their presentations and then take action not just to simply save any future but to create a better future for our grandchildren.

Posted by Jock Gill at June 11, 2006 12:20 PM | TrackBack
Comments

There is no question but that the environment is a major issue BUT it is not one people care about. In my view, we first have to elect a President based on electoral reform and a coalition cabinet. THEN we have to educate the people and look at what I call the ten threats, twelve policies, and eight challengers. The URL for a one page summary of these is at www.oss.net/TERMS. All of this has to be understood in context, a strategy with a balanced budget and a stable long-term campaign plan introduced, and--most importantly--the people have to be shown in graphic visualization the returns they and their children get for specific sacrifices. Water and energy are the wild cards. The same month that Cheney was meeting in secret with Enron CEO Ken Lay and Exxon CEO etc, WIRED produced a fine plan for a two way energy grid and much more localized agriculture, etc. The brainpower is there, what has been lacking is the political willpower.

Bottom line: electoral reform, not the environment, is what will bring the people together to empower a team that can THEN address poverty, disease, the environment, and the other seven threats.

IMHO

Posted by: Robert Steele at June 11, 2006 5:32 PM

Robert,

Thanks for taking the time to post a comment.

I generally agree with you, with a few caveats:

1: We have lost at least 30 years of opportunity to address the consequences of nearly 200 years of releasing the sequestered carbon in fossil fuels back into the atmosphere. The consequences of this appear to becoming more sever at an accelerating pace. So the question is: Do we have two more years to wait? The environment knows nothing or our quaint political schedule.

2: While it is true that in the past, and into today, the general public is apparently not yet troubled or alarmed about global climate changes, I suggest that this situation could change very quickly. A few super hurricanes with land falls at major coastal cities, significant and prolonged killer heat waves and droughts, much higher energy prices, a significant loss of ice in Greenland or Antarctica, and so forth, may cause a “tipping point” in public awareness and concern much sooner than any us might expect. Sooner, rather than latter, the challenges posed by accelerating and ever increasing global climate changes will make Environmental Stewardship the #1 organizing principal of politics around the world.

3. I suggest that we will be looking at significant and new positive opportunities as much as we might be looking at “sacrifices”. It is important to remember that change is opportunity and a great deal more. Sacrifice is not the only possible outcome. Not to say that there are not likely to be some sacrifices to go along with the exciting new opportunities.

Regards,
Jock

Posted by: Jock Gill at June 11, 2006 8:02 PM

Jock,

We are on the same wave length with respect to what must be done, but I beg to differ on timelines and perceptions.

All of you may be interested in my reviews of four new books on climate change, URL for *all* of my reviews (these are the top four most recently entered) is:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/cdp/member-reviews/A1S8AJIUIO6M9K/ref=cm_pdp_content_reviews/102-8217757-1116169

First off, interestingly, you say two years, the literature in now saying that climate changes that used to take 10,000 years are now taking place within three years. So yes, time is of the essence, but generally I thought your earlier focus on 50 years to fix was right. Clearly, 2008 is a CRITICAL election, and I stand by my views that the idiot DNC cannot win base on base--this will take a national uprising.

Second, and as a logical segue to the national uprising idea, while you are right about more hurricanes causing outrage, I think you are wrong about people associating that with the environment. Instead, as with Katrina, they associate it with government failure to prepare or respond, so the visceral appeal to the people needs to be focused on the failure of government and--as the Op Ed you sent me earlier suggests--outrage over blatant intimidation of people of color in Florida and Ohil, and blatent THEFT of specific districts to STEAL critical electoral votes.

I come back to some fundamental precepts from my 700+ books at the above URL:

1) The people will response to authentic leadership.

2) A coalition government with a coalition cabinet announced in advance of the election will be CREDIBLE and will trounce the "banana peel" words of even so great a hero as born again Bushophile John McCain.

3) Fair voting, not the environment, is the dog catcher issue for winning the election.

4) Once the election is won, the President and his team should have two priorities:

4a) Legislatively mandated reform including the instant run-off and the other measures Ralph Nader and I have recommended, to once and for all eliminate the "margin" for thievery, and to eliminate the post-election corruption of incumbents by special interests or "the party line" (see Tom Coburn's "Breach of Trust").

4b) A holistic national strategy that addresses the ten threats, twelve policy areas, and eight challengers (with some amusement, I note I now sound like Mao). See www.oss.net/TERMS for the specifics. This strategy must be accompanied by a transparent balanced budget online that serves as a town hall meeting and "world game" in one.

We can win, but only if we get a leader that is NOT from the old guard, that is willing to LISTEN, and that is willing to take risks by creating a non-rival Citizens Party to level the playing field once and for all.

Robert

Posted by: Robert David Steele at June 12, 2006 11:31 AM

Robert,

Happy Father's Day.

i agreee with your last sentence -- as far as it goes. It is necessary, but not sufficient.

Aldon's June 16th post on Narrative, see GD's main page, points to the additional requirement for winning: a powerful political story map provided by a compelling narrative.

See also Frank Rich's Op-Ed in the NY Times of June 18th, 2006.

Regards,

Jock

Posted by: Jock Gill at June 18, 2006 12:58 PM

Post copied from www.citizens-party.org

The Environment Runs Through It…
June 19th, 2006
Several of us have been having a debate about whether the Environment is THE issue for 2006 and 2008, or whether it is Electoral Reform that must preceed any focus on any issue, however imporant.

While it is my view that Electoral Reform is the fundamental enabling objective in the near term, I put together a chart that shows the ten threats identified by the High-Level Threat Panel of the United Nations, in which Environmental Degradation was third, below Poverty and Infectuous Disease, and the twelve policy areas (debt, diplomacy, economy, education, energy, family, immigration, justice, revenue, security, society, and water.

What jumps out from this chart, visible at the link under Public Intelligence titled “Matrix of Issues,” is that the Environment is the one threat that impacts on every single policy area. Also noteworthy the fact that water, not energy, is part and parcel of every threat situation, and that in combination, the staggering size of the debt and the inefficient generation of revenue (e.g. subsidies, tax loopholes, and tolerance of crime) are foreclosing whatever options we might hope to exercise.

Hence, in my view, the Environment is a pervasive and fundamental issue, but there are two pre-conditions for our being able to address it effectively:

1) Electoral Reform that ends special interest bribery of Congress and the White House

2) Immediate attention to doubling federal revenue and eliminating the debt.

Each of the issue areas, and especially the environment, can and should be addressed from day one of the new enlightened Administration’s tenure, but electoral reform, and balancing the budget, are the empowering preamble to addressing the Environment as well as the other threats, all of which are related in some way to the Environment.

Thoughts from anyone else?

Robert Steele

Posted by: Robert David Steele at June 19, 2006 3:15 PM
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