How much longer will tomorrow be like yesterday?
Author: Jock Gill
The picture above, thanks to David M. Harrison, Dept. of Physics. Univ. of Toronto, is one way to look at the concept of punctuated equilibrium or the bifurcation process that is part of Chaos.
I once wrote a simple BASIC program that creates this image of a system bifurcating and then moving into chaos. I have a print taped above my computer. Note that, for most of the time, it is a simple line with an apparently smooth rate of change. Tomorrow is pretty much like yesterday. Then, suddenly, wham, it is punctuated with a bifurcation. Then watch out!
When it comes to energy and the environment, are we at the end of the period with a smooth rate of change? The picture suggests there may come a day when the road we assume we will always be on suddenly stops. Is no more. And is replaced by a very different scenario.
The rate of change in the rate of change can be a killer. Where, however, is the conversation about this that will help us understand the implications for our future? If the road we are on suddenly ends, what do we do then? How do we prepare for this eventuality?
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Jock is relating some of the concepts of catastrophe theory, a theory of discontinuities involving stable states, instability, and possible resulting new stable states. The book of the same name is interesting, important, and fairly nontechnical for such a technical topic.
We are in for it, on many levels, but the weather is an important one (energy another). The signs are unmistakable:
(http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/21/magazine/21water-t.html?ref=science)
Thanks, Jock. It’s an interesting and timely topic.